THE IDEA
Making sense before making decisions
Most models of decision-making assume you start with a clear picture of the situation and then choose between well-defined options. In reality, the hardest part is usually earlier than that: figuring out what’s going on in the first place.
Sensemaking is the process of creating a plausible understanding of an ambiguous, complex, or novel situation. It’s not analysis (which assumes the data exists and needs interpreting) and it’s not decision-making (which assumes the options are clear). It’s the earlier, messier work of assembling fragments of information, experience, and intuition into a story that’s coherent enough to act on.
Karl Weick, who developed the concept, emphasised that sensemaking isn’t about finding the “right” interpretation. It’s about constructing a plausible one that allows action, and then updating it as new information arrives. In complex situations, waiting for certainty means waiting forever. Sensemaking gives you a working understanding - good enough to move, flexible enough to update, honest enough to acknowledge what you don’t know.
IN PRACTICE
Finding the story in the noise
A new leader arrives at an organisation in trouble. The data is contradictory. The staff tell different stories. The metrics don’t match the mood. There’s no clear diagnosis waiting to be found - the situation is genuinely ambiguous. The leader doesn’t retreat to their office to analyse spreadsheets. They walk the floors, have conversations, observe how people interact, notice what’s said and what’s avoided. Slowly, a picture forms - not a complete one, but a coherent enough narrative to guide the first decisions. That process is sensemaking.
A doctor in an emergency room encounters a patient with symptoms that don’t fit any standard pattern. The tests are inconclusive. The patient’s history is incomplete. The doctor can’t wait for certainty - the patient needs treatment now. So the doctor constructs the most plausible explanation from the available evidence, begins treatment based on that explanation, and watches closely for signs that the interpretation is wrong. That’s sensemaking under pressure - acting on the best available understanding while staying ready to revise it.
A family navigates an unexpected crisis - a sudden job loss, a health scare, an upheaval. In the first days, nobody fully understands what’s happening or what it means. The family members talk, share information, voice fears, test interpretations. “Is this as bad as it seems?” “What do we actually know?” “What happened to the Johnsons when this happened to them?” Through conversation - not analysis - a shared understanding forms. It’s not complete or perfect. But it’s enough to start making decisions together. The sensemaking happened in the talking, not in any individual’s head.
WORKING WITH THIS
Creating conditions for sense to emerge
Sensemaking can’t be commanded, but conditions can be created that support it. The most important is access to diverse information. If everyone in the room has the same data, the same background, and the same perspective, the group will converge on a single interpretation quickly - and it’s likely to be wrong, because it reflects a narrow view. Diverse inputs produce richer sensemaking.
The second condition is tolerance for ambiguity. Sensemaking takes time. The picture doesn’t arrive fully formed. If the culture demands certainty and punishes confusion, people will rush to premature conclusions rather than sitting with ambiguity long enough for a better understanding to emerge.
The third is conversation. Sensemaking is fundamentally social. It happens through dialogue, not through individual analysis. When people talk about what they’re seeing, share their partial views, and build on each other’s interpretations, the collective understanding is richer than any individual’s. The meeting that feels unstructured - where people are talking around a problem without converging on a solution - is often sensemaking in progress. It looks messy because it is. That’s the point.
THE INSIGHT
The line to remember
The most important work often happens before the decision - in the messy, uncertain process of figuring out what’s going on. Rush that, and you’ll make a clear decision about the wrong problem.
RECOGNITION
When this is in play
You need sensemaking when a situation is genuinely ambiguous and nobody can agree on what’s happening, let alone what to do. When the data doesn’t tell a clear story. When experienced people disagree about the diagnosis. When the pressure for action is strong but the clarity of understanding is weak. When someone says “we need to just decide” and the real issue is that nobody yet understands the situation well enough to decide wisely.